Netanyahu claims 56 seats but Likud faces weakest result since 2009

Neither of the two main political blocs in Israel has secured a clear path to a governing majority, according to early projections released Tuesday.

The Times of Israel projected that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc will win 56 seats in the Knesset. Gadi Eisenkot’s center-left alliance is projected to take 49 seats. With more than half of the ballots counted, neither group holds the 61 seats required to form a standalone government.

Likud is on track to finish as the largest single party in the parliament. Projections from Israeli Channels 12 and 13 estimate the party will win 27 seats. Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party is projected to win 21 seats. This gives Likud a clear lead over any other individual party, though it marks the lowest seat count for the party since 2009.

Benjamin Netanyahu addressed supporters at his party headquarters in West Jerusalem shortly after polls closed. He argued that a right-wing government is necessary to ensure long-term security. He stated that the government cannot rely on coalitions with Arab parties, which he described as being against Israel's existence. Netanyahu acknowledged that the final results were still one or two days away but emphasized Likud's projected status as the largest party.

In the speech, Netanyahu listed military and diplomatic achievements from his current term. He cited the elimination of several high-profile leaders, including Mohammed Deif, Ismail Haniyeh, Yahya Sinwar, Hassan Nasrallah, and Ali Khamenei. He said Israel established security zones in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria. He claimed these actions removed an immediate existential threat and weakened the Iranian regime. Netanyahu said Israel has a historical opportunity with U.S. President Donald Trump to address the threat from Iran.

Political analysts noted the complexity of forming a government from the projected results. Alon Pinkas, a former Israeli ambassador, said the party that secures the majority of seats may have to seek an uncomfortable coalition deal. He added that opposition voters would likely oppose any deal with Netanyahu’s bloc. Marwan Bishara, a senior political analyst, observed that Netanyahu projected a level of success that he does not fully merit. He noted that the claim of being the largest party obscures the fact that Likud has reached its lowest point since 2009.

Dan Perry, a political analyst, said Netanyahu used the speech to manage the narrative after exit polls were released. The projections indicate a tight race for the remaining seats needed to reach a majority. The final seat counts will determine which party is tasked with forming a coalition. Both sides are currently short of the 61 seats required to govern independently.