52 to 50: Polls show no majority in Israel's fragmented Knesset

A pre-election poll from public broadcaster KAN projects that the opposition alliance will win 52 seats in Israel's 120-seat Knesset, while Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc will capture 50. The remaining seats are expected to go to unaffiliated parties, including the two main Arab-majority political lists. Neither bloc is currently on course to secure the 61 seats required for a parliamentary majority. This vote is the first legislative election since the Hamas-led attacks on October 7, 2023, and the subsequent war in Gaza.

The pro-Netanyahu coalition consists of the Likud party and several far-right and ultra-Orthodox partners. These include United Torah Judaism, Shas, Otzma Yehudi, and Religious Zionism-Zehut. The opposition is formed by four Jewish-led movements: the Yashar party led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, the Democrats led by former deputy military chief Yair Golan, the Yisrael Beiteinu party led by former Finance Minister Avigdor Lieberman, and the Together alliance led by former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and Knesset opposition leader Yair Lapid.

Both coalitions have effectively ruled out joining forces with the Arab-led parties for the time being. This creates a fractured political environment where post-election negotiations will be necessary to form a governing majority. If those efforts fail, Israel could end up with a minority government reliant on external support or face another round of elections. The Arab lists, Ra'am and the Joint List, hold the balance of power in this scenario.

Key domestic issues driving the vote include demand for accountability for security failures prior to the 2023 attacks. Voters are also weighing the military exemption of the growing ultra-Orthodox community and Netanyahu's judicial reform efforts. Mairav Zonszein, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, stated that secular and liberal opposition factions view this election as the last chance to save Israeli democracy and restore eroded institutions. Yehouda Shenhav-Shahrabani, an Israeli sociologist, noted that right-wing trends have accelerated under the current government.

International criticism is a major factor in the election cycle. Allies of Israel are sanctioning its West Bank settlements, and many nations are denouncing its attacks in Gaza and Lebanon. On September 24, dozens of envoys walked out of Netanyahu's address to the United Nations General Assembly. The outcome will determine whether the next government maintains its current international approach or seeks to repair ties.

Netanyahu, who has led the country for more than 15 of the last 17 years, faces scrutiny over alleged security failures and corruption charges he has battled since 2019. An electoral defeat would leave him more exposed to his ongoing corruption trial, which could result in a prison sentence if he is convicted. A new government could also influence the prospects of a commission of inquiry into the 2023 attacks and his standing regarding the International Criminal Court arrest warrant for war crimes.

Approximately 7.3 million Israeli citizens are eligible to vote on Tuesday. This includes about 1.2 million Palestinian citizens of Israel. In contrast, roughly three million adult Palestinians in Gaza, the West Bank, and East Jerusalem have no say in the government that controls their borders and legal status. Recent polling suggests turnout among Palestinian citizens could reach 60 percent, with the majority of votes going to the Arab lists. If turnout reaches 65 percent, these parties could win as many as 15 seats.

Campaigners are aiming for 70 percent turnout, which would be the highest in decades and could raise the electoral threshold to keep smaller parties out of parliament. Last month, Israel's Central Elections Committee voted to bar the Joint List and Ra'am from the election. The country's top court quickly reversed that decision, allowing the Arab parties to stay in the race. However, the court forced Balad leader Sami Abu Shehadeh to withdraw from the race over an article describing the October 7 attacks as an important historical event.

Netanyahu has sought to portray his opponents as potential partners of the Arab parties. He claims an opposition-led government will seek their support and that only Likud can prevent this. Joseph Mansour, a former aide to Knesset member Ayman Odeh, wrote for the Arab Center Washington DC that alienating Arab parties is part of Netanyahu's strategy. If Palestinian-led party support becomes politically toxic and the opposition falls short of 61 seats, the deadlock itself becomes a win for Netanyahu, potentially allowing him to remain in office as a caretaker prime minister.