Israeli Election: 120 Seats Determine Netanyahu's Fate

Ballots were cast on Tuesday in a Knesset election where 120 seats will determine the future of Benjamin Netanyahu’s government. After three decades in Israeli politics, including 19 years as prime minister, the center-right leader faces a contest that polls describe as nearly tied between his supporters and opponents. The race has coalesced around his leadership rather than traditional ideological divides.

Gadi Eisenkot leads the opposition effort. A former military chief of staff who entered politics four years ago, Eisenkot runs under the Yashar banner, a name that translates to straight or direct. At a rally in Modi'in this week, he outlined a platform that includes US-style term limits for the prime minister and a government free of deception. Voters like Noa Sadeh, a 56-year-old attendee, cited a desire for a leader focused on execution rather than rhetoric.

The opposition coalition is diverse. It includes Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman, two former right-wing figures who previously collaborated with Netanyahu before their alliances dissolved. On the far right, Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit party also frames its campaign against the prime minister. Yishai Fleisher of that party told voters in Bet Shemesh that Netanyahu has drifted left and needs to be pulled right, proposing expanded settlements and the death penalty.

Netanyahu has shaped the narrative through campaign materials that pit Yamin against Falastin. This imagery places opposition leaders next to parties representing Palestinian citizens, who comprise about one-fifth of the population. The central tension in the coming weeks involves whether Jewish anti-Netanyahu parties, which are projected to outpoll his bloc but lack a majority, will rely on Arab-led parties to form a government. Channel 14, a pro-Netanyahu outlet, has kept this issue central to its coverage.

Tensions surfaced this week when Yinon Magal of Channel 14 called Eisenkot a Moroccan monkey. Eisenkot did not repeat the slur at his rally, a move admirers viewed as restraint and critics viewed as a lack of aggressive counterattack. The close polling persists despite the 7 October 2023 attacks occurring during Netanyahu’s tenure. His war in Gaza has killed more than 70,000 Palestinians, including a third who were Hamas combatants, yet has not eliminated the group. He also faces a corruption trial and the fallout from judicial reform efforts.

Netanyahu’s base remains loyal despite reports that he received warnings about the October attacks. His allies claim military and intelligence leaders kept him uninformed, a theory supporters maintain. Many observers expect him to outmaneuver rivals in post-election coalition talks. Conversely, opposition hopes are bolstered by expatriate Israelis flying home to vote. These voters are not fully captured in polls and could swing the result if the margin is thin.

The campaign also coincided with the state ceremony for the 1995 assassination of Yitzhak Rabin. Netanyahu skipped the event, sending a lower-ranking minister instead. Yair Golan of the Democrats expressed optimism about forming a strategic regional process for security, avoiding the term peace process. A viral video of young Israelis singing Rabin’s Shir LaShalom at a Negev festival suggested that for many, the era of Netanyahu’s dominance may be concluding.