Three Seats: The Narrow Margin That May Decide Israel's Next Government

The outcome of Israel's upcoming election may rest on a margin of just three seats.

Political assessments circulating within the establishment suggest that Agudat Yisrael, a haredi faction holding only three Knesset seats, could provide critical backing to a government led by the opposition. The faction is headed by Yitzhak Goldknopf. With less than a day remaining before voting begins, officials are weighing several potential scenarios, including a coalition reliant on Arab party support or a return to the polls for a second round.

One specific proposal involves Agudat Yisrael offering its support to an opposition-led administration in exchange for specific budgetary agreements. However, analysts note that even such a deal would not automatically eliminate the need for votes from Arab parties to secure a stable majority. This potential cooperation is not entirely new; the Maariv newspaper reported in August that the faction was exploring fresh political options, including possible alignment with Gadi Eisenkot. These discussions occurred against a backdrop of internal friction within United Torah Judaism, specifically regarding the haredi military draft and relations with Prime Minister Netanyahu. Agudat Yisrael expressed disappointment with the coalition's behavior, while the rival faction Degel Hatorah signaled a lack of confidence in Netanyahu. Rabbi Dov Lando also added to the uncertainty by writing a letter expressing reservations about maintaining the commitment to the Likud-led bloc.

Despite these internal shifts, Goldknopf faces a distinct political challenge. His voter base is largely aligned with the Right. Assessments indicate that any visible move toward the change bloc could drive some of his supporters toward Likud or Otzma Yehudit. Attention is also focused on former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett. If neither the current government nor the opposition secures the 61 seats required for a Knesset majority, Bennett could decide the shape of the next government. Some political circles believe he is the only leader in the change bloc with enough right-wing background to potentially join a Netanyahu-led government, though this remains a remote scenario.

A similar maneuver by Yisrael Beytenu leader Avigdor Liberman has also been raised, given his history of joining a Netanyahu government as defense minister. However, current assessments hold that Liberman is unlikely to make such a move due to ongoing personal and political disagreements with the Prime Minister. For now, these remain scenarios rather than finalized agreements. The central issue in upcoming coalition negotiations will be which politician is willing to shift their political base to bridge the gap. The final vote count in the coming days will determine whether these theoretical paths become reality.