One-Third of Israelis Undecided as Likud Fears Nonprofit Turnout Surge

Isaacs and voters face a critical decision on Tuesday, October 27, as nearly one-third of the electorate remains undecided according to recent surveys. Inside the Likud headquarters, optimism clashes with anxiety over a coordinated effort by non-governmental groups to drive turnout against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The election date allows the current government to complete its full term, but internal polling has failed to settle the debate among party leaders.

Shlomo Filber, the head of Likud's internal polling, offers mixed signals to the party base. One source described the internal mood as polarized, noting that some members feel certain of victory while others remain cautious. The source characterized Filber's role with stark binary language: "Either Momo comes out a king, or Momo goes home. It is one or the other." This uncertainty persists despite the party's belief that right-wing votes may consolidate behind their slate.

The primary source of worry for Likud officials is a widespread campaign by nonprofits and organizations. These groups are reportedly spending large sums to mobilize voters in the opposing camp without direct party funding. The activities include social media blitzes, field events, transportation for Arab voters, and campaigns to bring Israeli citizens abroad back to the country to vote. One official labeled the effort "the nonprofits affair on steroids," arguing it creates a support network outside standard party financing rules.

Likud leaders have also criticized the Central Elections Committee. The party claims the committee focused heavily on regulating campaign videos and public resource usage while overlooking the scale of the nonprofit operations. Although sources cited specific funding amounts, they did not provide documentation to prove the activities were illegal or the exact sums involved.

To counter these efforts, Likud is organizing a large-scale ground operation for Election Day. The party is working to prevent right-wing voters from drifting to smaller slates, despite restrictions on gathering data from polling stations. Negotiations to bring Brig.-Gen. (res.) Ofer Winter out of the race failed, leaving him to lead the People of Israel party. Rabbi Eli Sadan issued a statement supporting Winter after talks involving him concluded without a deal.

Other right-wing factions are also in motion. The joint ticket of Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha is being courted by Likud officials. Additionally, Rabbi Abergel's Ahi party has withdrawn from the race following discussions with Likud. Those talks included potential legislation allowing the Ahi party to appoint a deputy minister, a move aimed at stabilizing the right-wing coalition on election night.