Kane leads bookmakers at 70 percent ahead of London award ceremony

Harry Kane is the clear favorite to win the 2026 Ballon d'Or, with bookmakers assigning him a 70 percent chance of victory. The winner will be announced at a ceremony at the London Palladium less than 24 hours from now. The prize recognizes the best player in football for the 2025-26 season.

The race has narrowed to three main contenders: Kane, Lamine Yamal, and Kylian Mbappe. Yamal, a 19-year-old winger for Spain and Barcelona, and Mbappe, the France star, have both publicly campaigned for the honor. Kane has remained quieter about his own case despite a prolific scoring season.

Forecasts diverge based on the method used. Avisia, a French artificial intelligence firm, places Yamal first with a 23 percent probability. Kane follows at 21 percent, and Mbappe sits third at 19 percent, tied with 2024 winner Rodri. Lionel Messi rounds out the top five at 18 percent, chasing a record ninth title. Avisia notes it correctly predicted the top five for the previous award, which Ousmane Dembele won. Bookmakers disagree, backing Kane as the outright leader.

Peers in the game have split their support. Atletico Madrid manager Diego Simeone favors Messi, citing his performance at age 38 after his World Cup exit. Jude Bellingham backs Kane, praising his work ethic. Anthony Gordon supports Yamal, while Real Madrid teammate Aurelien Tchouameni champions Mbappe. Each player has strong individual statistics to back their case.

Mbappe finished as the top scorer in La Liga with 25 goals and led the Champions League with 15. He also took the World Cup Golden Boot and set a record for the most goals in a single World Cup tournament with 12. Kane scored 73 goals last season, the highest total by any player since Messi scored 82 in 2011-12. However, trophy counts complicate their cases. Mbappe did not win a major title with his club or country. Kane won the Bundesliga but finished third in the World Cup.

Yamal won the World Cup with Spain and La Liga with Barcelona, despite an injury-plagued season. Historical data favors players who win major silverware. Only four of the last 19 Ballon d'Or winners did not take home the Champions League, World Cup, European Championship, or Copa America in the same year. If Yamal wins, he will become the youngest recipient in the award's history, surpassing Brazil's Ronaldo, who was 21 when he won in 1997.