Coalition math leaves Israel eight seats short of a majority

The October 27 vote produced the highest turnout in Israel since 1999, but the final count leaves the country without a clear governing majority.

Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc controls 53 seats, which is eight short of the 61 needed to pass legislation. The main non-Arab opposition parties hold 48 seats. If they join forces with the 19 seats held by Arab-led parties, they could reach 67, but internal disagreements complicate that alliance.

The political gridlock mirrors a pattern familiar to Israeli voters. For years, the opposition has coalesced around the slogan “No Bibi.” While many citizens cite substantive objections to Netanyahu’s record and his approach to democratic institutions, that shared dislike does not constitute a governing program. A coalition defined by rejection cannot address practical issues like rent for reservists’ families or safety in northern cities like Kiryat Shmona.

Historical precedents show that Israeli leaders have previously prioritized national unity over party loyalty. In May 1967, Menachem Begin joined the government of Levi Eshkol as a minister without portfolio just days before the Six-Day War. Begin did not abandon his political identity, but he accepted a role in a broader cabinet to address the immediate military threat.

In 1984, Shimon Peres and Yitzhak Shamir formed a rotation government despite deep ideological differences. The coalition enacted the 1985 Economic Stabilization Plan, which helped curb hyperinflation that had exceeded 400%. It also led to the withdrawal of most troops from Lebanon, though a security zone remained in the south.

More recently, Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot joined Netanyahu’s emergency government in October 2023 following the Hamas-led attack. This move demonstrated that political opponents can sit together during a crisis. However, the 2020 unity government between Netanyahu and Gantz collapsed over a budget dispute before its planned rotation could take place. That failure illustrates that trust and credible commitments are necessary for stability.

The current landscape offers no easy mathematical solution. The Bennett-Lapid government of 2021 proved that disparate parties could cooperate to pass a budget, but it eventually fell after defections. A new broad coalition would not eliminate disagreements, but it could create enough room for decision-making without each faction threatening the government's survival.

Experts and political observers argue that a viable unity government requires a written program with specific deadlines. This program should include a long-term security strategy, reconstruction plans for war-damaged communities, and relief measures for housing and living costs. It should also address a fairer distribution of military service, an independent investigation into the events of October 7, and the protection of democratic institutions.

Both camps face distinct burdens. The “No Bibi” parties must convert their vetoes into concrete proposals. Netanyahu and his allies must accept meaningful power-sharing and accountability. If the identity of the prime minister becomes the primary obstacle, that position itself must remain open to negotiation.

The next step in the process is for party leaders to negotiate the terms of a coalition. The goal is to move beyond seat counting and toward a shared agenda that addresses the immediate needs of working families and the long-term stability of the state.