Knesset elections: Netanyahu and Eisenkot seek coalition partners

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his main rival, former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, are entering a phase of high-stakes negotiations to form a new government following the recent parliamentary elections. Neither leader secured a majority in the 120-member Knesset, requiring them to build a coalition of at least 61 seats. The outcome leaves the question of who will lead the country unresolved while party leaders attempt to assemble a workable bloc.

Arab-led parties won a historic 19 seats, positioning them as potential decisive players in the coalition process. These parties represent citizens who make up 20% of the population and have close ties to Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza. Only once in history has an Arab party joined a governing coalition, in 2021, and that government lasted approximately 18 months.

Eisenkot faces a politically risky option to join forces with the Arab-led parties. This alliance could form a solid 67-seat coalition opposed to Netanyahu. However, Netanyahu is already portraying such an alliance as a betrayal of Israel’s Jewish identity and a national security threat. This rhetoric aims to pressure Eisenkot’s right-leaning allies, who may view the partnership with suspicion.

An alternative scenario involves Netanyahu convincing Eisenkot and his allies to join a unity government. This arrangement would grant Netanyahu a 67-seat majority and place Arab-led parties, along with ultranationalist and ultra-Orthodox factions, in opposition. Such a government could address issues like military exemptions for the ultra-Orthodox and economic stability. However, Eisenkot’s camp has vowed not to govern with Netanyahu, citing his role in the security failures surrounding the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack and his ongoing corruption trial.

Netanyahu may also seek to poach defectors from the opposition bloc, targeting right-wing leaders such as Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman. Both leaders support nationalist policies, including expanding settlements in the occupied West Bank, which makes partnering with Arab parties difficult for them. Despite past personal clashes with Netanyahu, they could be lured away if they find it hard to align with the Arab-led parties or if they oppose the military exemptions demanded by Netanyahu’s ultra-Orthodox allies.

If negotiations fail, Israel may face new elections early next year, with Netanyahu’s government remaining in a caretaker role. This outcome could disadvantage Eisenkot’s opponents, who gained momentum from tens of thousands of Israelis who traveled abroad to vote in the recent election. Netanyahu would gain time to strengthen his coalition, as smaller right-wing parties that failed to meet the parliamentary threshold might not run again, potentially consolidating pro-Netanyahu votes into larger far-right parties. A similar stalemate in 2019 led to five elections over three and a half years.