Texas Hispanic support for Trump erodes ahead of midterms

The Rio Grande Valley in Texas delivered Donald Trump a record 55% of Hispanic votes in 2024, but recent data indicates that support is shifting before the November 3 midterms. Democrats are working to reclaim the region, where the mood among voters has changed since the presidential election.

The area holds a specific history for border politics. It was once a primary crossing point on the US-Mexico border, with over 2.5 million apprehensions recorded in a single year under President Joe Biden. Trump campaigned on ending illegal crossings, and current levels are at their lowest in decades. That success helped secure the historic Hispanic vote share in the state.

Local sentiment is now reflecting the administration's enforcement actions. At La Lomita Catholic Chapel, a site dating to the Civil War, Father Roy Snipes preached on the role of Immigration and Customs Enforcement. He has served the community for nearly 50 years and previously resisted border wall plans. Speaking to about 30 worshippers, he stated, "There's no good excuse to detain, incarcerate and deport poor, good folks who are our neighbours." Government data obtained by the Deportation Data Project shows Texas accounted for roughly one-third of all ICE arrests nationwide in July 2026, a larger share than any other state.

Polling conducted since late summer reveals a majority of Hispanic voters in Texas disapprove of the president. Surveys show they favor Democrats over Republicans by a wide margin. Javier Villalobos, the Republican mayor of McAllen, acknowledges the difficulty of the race. He credits the administration with securing the border but notes that most voters accept deporting criminals, while resistance begins with the removal of productive, law-abiding residents.

Business leaders reflect this shift in voting intention. Mario Guerrero, a Mexican-American businessman and head of the South Texas Builders Association, voted for Trump three times but plans to vote Democrat in November. He cited a lack of clarity on the administration's reach and described a crew of 35 daily workers that has shrunk to four or six members. Republican consultant Mike Madrid observes that Latinos are more likely than any other group to identify as independents.

Redistricting efforts have not fully secured Republican advantages. Texas redrew its 15th district in 2025 to create an 18-point Republican majority, yet current polling shows a Democratic lead of five or six points. Candidate Bobby Pulido, a Tejano singer and two-time Latin Grammy winner, has focused on the economy rather than the national party brand. He told supporters, "This isn't New York, this isn't LA."

Cost of living remains the primary concern for many voters in the valley. At a local avocado festival, residents Dave Baldwin and Veronica Salazar blamed the president for rising prices. Baldwin stated, "He is in control of our destiny with all that, and right now he's not doing a very good job." Republican campaigners admit they are on the back foot, with student volunteer Alexis Uscanga describing the midterms as a "purely a game of turnout."

Tano Tijerina, the Republican candidate for the neighboring 28th district, acknowledged that national political headwinds are real despite credit for border progress. If polls hold, a modest swing could reshape races beyond the state. In Texas, that shift could put a US Senate seat in play, a position Democrats have not won in more than 30 years.