Polls place 12 to 15 seats in hands of Palestinian bloc

Palestinian citizens of Israel face a decisive role in next week's election, with polls projecting they will secure between 12 and 15 of the 120 Knesset seats. Most forecasts indicate that Benjamin Netanyahu's far-right coalition will lose its current majority. Simultaneously, the Jewish Israeli opposition bloc is expected to fall short of the 61 seats required to form a government. This arithmetic leaves the minority bloc as the potential kingmaker in a tightly contested race.

In Kfar Qasim, voters gathered for evening social events to hear candidate pitches. The community represents approximately 20% of the national population. The projected seats are split between the Islamist Ra'am party and the Joint List, an alliance of three smaller parties including Ta'al. Ahmad Tibi, who leads Ta'al and has served in the Knesset for more than two decades, stated that high turnout is a primary tool to remove the current government from power. He expressed the party's determination to pursue every available option to achieve this goal.

Major opposition parties have largely ruled out governing with Arab politicians. Netanyahu and his allies have campaigned against such alliances, using slogans like "Bibi or Tibi" and posters declaring a choice between the right and Palestine. Despite these efforts, alliances have formed before. In 2021, Ra'am leader Mansour Abbas joined a coalition with Naftali Bennett. Netanyahu also initiated coalition talks with Abbas in the past. Mohammed, a voter who manages mixed Jewish and Arab staff at a technology firm, expects the opposition to reconsider its stance once results are in. He described the decision as simple mathematics and is urging friends to vote.

Forming an alliance remains difficult for Palestinian leaders. None of the opposition parties support a two-state solution, and most strongly oppose a Palestinian state while backing the settlement movement in the West Bank. Tibi characterized the choice as one between "bad and worse." He placed Netanyahu, Bezalel Smotrich, and Itamar Ben-Gvir on one side and the opposition on the other. The history of Palestinian representation is limited, with only two ministers in the country's history: Raleb Majadele, who served for two years, and Issawi Frej, who served for just over a year.

Fear is driving voter motivation. Sami Abu Shehadeh, leader of the Balad party, cited the death in Gaza, militant violence in the West Bank, and rising discrimination inside Israel as key factors. He said voters fear the return of what he called "these criminals" to power. Distrust of the system has previously depressed turnout. Last month, the supreme court removed Abu Shehadeh from the race over an article about the October 7 attacks, a ruling widely criticized for its inconsistent application of free speech standards. A motion to disqualify security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir over racist language was not upheld.

Some Palestinians are abstaining on principle. Haaretz journalist Nagham Zbeedat stated she refuses to legitimize a system that treats her rights as favors. Amjed Iraqi of the International Crisis Group noted that a returning far-right coalition would have a renewed mandate to accelerate annexation and ethnic cleansing policies. He described the vote as a measure of mitigation, noting that voters can distinguish between a right-wing and a far-right government. The election takes place two days before Kafr Qassim commemorates the 1956 massacre, in which border police killed 49 people who violated a curfew they were unaware of. Iraqi said the lack of clarity about the aftermath contributes to the feeling of powerlessness among many voters.