Early voting gap leads in Florida midterms

Nearly 40 percent of Florida’s electorate had already voted by Monday morning, ahead of the statewide midterm elections. The Division of Elections reported that 5.4 million of the state’s 13.7 million registered voters cast ballots through mail or at early voting sites. This total represents 69 percent of the overall turnout recorded in the 2022 midterm cycle and 62 percent of the 2018 midterm participation.

Registered Democrats led in early participation, with 49 percent of their members having voted. That group includes 832,000 mail ballots and 1.2 million in-person early votes. Republicans, who hold a 1.5 million advantage in total registered voters, reached a cumulative 38.2 percent. Their early vote consists of 1.5 million in-person ballots cast before Sunday and approximately 679,000 mail ballots. Unaffiliated voters, a group of 3.3 million, stood at 31 percent participation, with just over 382,000 votes by mail and nearly 669,000 in person.

Florida Democratic Party Chairwoman Nikki Fried described the turnout as historically strong in an emailed fundraising pitch on Monday. "In every county in this state, Democrats are showing up at rates that we have not seen in years," Fried said. She added that maintaining this momentum through Election Day is essential for the party to regain control of the state. Fried, who won the agriculture commissioner race in 2018, is the most recent Democrat to win a statewide office.

Republican gubernatorial candidate U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds acknowledged the early lead but predicted a late surge. Speaking on the "Florida Unwired" podcast, Donalds said, "We know there are going to be a lot of voters showing up on election day. A lot of Republican voters are going to show up on election day. We know that. So, we just stay focused." Donalds noted that the GOP bench of unvoted registered voters remains large compared to the Democratic side.

Political control in Florida has shifted in recent decades. Republicans have controlled the state Legislature since 1996 and have occupied the governor’s mansion since 1999. However, the party did not surpass Democrats in the number of registered voters until 2021. In the 2022 midterm election, Republican turnout exceeded Democratic turnout by approximately 600,000 votes.

Voting locations across Florida open at 7 a.m. and close at 7 p.m. on Tuesday. County elections officials are expected to begin posting early and mail-in ballot totals about 30 minutes after polls close. The state Division of Elections will start publishing official election results after 8 p.m., following the closing of polls in the Central Time Zone, which covers the western Panhandle counties.

The early voting window ended Sunday, with the final day for in-person early voting. Mail ballots continue to be processed by county offices. The high volume of early votes means that a substantial portion of the final count is already determined before the polls open on Tuesday.