NPR: Six Data Points Will Determine Control of Congress in 2026 Midterms

Six specific voting patterns will determine which party controls Congress following the 2026 midterm elections. These indicators focus on turnout in early-reporting states, the share of independent voters supporting Republicans, and performance among young and Latino voters in critical districts. Analysts from NPR have outlined these metrics as the primary tools for predicting the night's results.

Results from Indiana and Kentucky are expected in the 6 p.m. ET hour, while most of Florida will report in the 7 p.m. ET hour. Statewide races in Florida will not be called before 8 p.m. ET. Early signals will come from Indiana's 5th Congressional District and Kentucky's 6th District. Both seats are currently held by Republicans but have become more competitive during the cycle. If these races are close or shift to Democrats, it suggests low Republican turnout and a potential wave for the opposing party.

Florida's 22nd District offers another early test. The seat is held by a Democrat but has been redrawn to favor Republicans. Florida's 27th District, a heavily Latino area where President Trump won by double digits in 2024, will serve as an indicator for that demographic's voting behavior this cycle.

Republican success relies on winning at least 46% of independent voters. While independents historically favored Republicans in higher percentages during the pre-Trump era, a political realignment has shifted blue-collar white voters toward the Republican side. Since Trump entered the political scene, the party has won elections when capturing this 46% threshold and lost when falling short.

The Michigan Senate race is a deciding factor for Senate control. If Republicans flip the seat, Democrats must win five seats currently held by Republicans to take control. Abdul El-Sayed's campaign depends heavily on Black voter turnout in Wayne County. Historical data shows Democrats needed at least 68% support in that county to win Michigan statewide, unless they overperform in the suburbs. Sen. Elissa Slotkin won in 2024 with 63% of the county, aided by suburban strength.

Young voters aged 18 to 29 have seen a drastic drop in turnout between presidential and midterm elections. Turnout for this group was 43% in presidential races since 1992 but falls to 21% in midterms. Democratic performance is closely tied to this demographic. In the last 20 years, Democrats have won presidencies or made midterm gains when winning this group by more than 20 points. The exception was 2022, where a 28-point margin helped limit Republican gains to a net loss of nine House seats while Democrats gained one Senate seat.

In Texas, the difference between the vote totals for Governor Greg Abbott and Ken Paxton will be a key metric for Democrat James Talarico. In 2018, Ted Cruz won by more than 200,000 votes despite trailing Abbott by about 400,000. Analysts suggest Talarico needs the gap between Abbott and Paxton to exceed 400,000 votes. Talarico's path also requires beating Beto O'Rourke's 2018 performance among Latinos. O'Rourke won 64% of that group, which constituted 26% of the electorate. Talarico must improve on O'Rourke's margins in Cameron, Hidalgo, Webb, and Nueces counties, as well as in the growing Dallas suburbs of Collin, Denton, and Tarrant.

Exit polls will also track party identification trends. Democratic identification hit a low of 31% in 2024, down from 39% in 2008 and 2010. This decline coincides with a more liberal base and leadership disaffection. However, opposition to President Trump is high, with 53% of likely voters in an NPR poll strongly disapproving of his job performance. This sentiment is expected to unify the left. The performance of progressive candidates in purple areas, such as Michigan's 7th Congressional District, will provide early clues about the ideological direction of the party for the 2028 presidential primary.