Democrats likely to take House as ad data reveals 70 competitive districts
Final week spending shows both parties betting on a shift in power, with over $10 million poured into key districts in Michigan, North Carolina, New York, and Florida.
By Naomi Whitaker ·
The final week of the 2026 midterm election is defined by a question of scale rather than possibility.
An NPR analysis indicates that 70 House districts will see at least six figures in ad spending from both parties in the final days before the Nov. 3 election. The competitive field is wider than previous midterms. More than $10 million each has been allocated to toss-up districts in Michigan, North Carolina, New York, and Florida. Deep-red areas in Tennessee, Oklahoma, and Arkansas are also receiving seven-figure ad buys.
The Cook Political Report lists Democrats as favored in 220 seats. It identifies 17 races as toss-ups and 30 others as competitive but leaning toward the Republican Party. Republicans currently hold a 218-214 seat advantage in the House. That narrow margin appears set to flip.
Four specific districts have seen Republican ad reservations drop in recent weeks. These include the seats of Democratic Reps. Adam Gray of California, Nellie Pou of New Jersey, and Marie Gluesenkamp-Perez of Washington, as well as the district of retiring Republican Rep. Don Bacon of Nebraska. In all four districts, voters in 2024 split their votes between the presidential and House candidates.
The latest NPR/PBS News/Marist poll shows Democrats hold a 10-point advantage among registered voters. The gap is 8 points among likely voters on the generic congressional ballot. Cost of living remains the top concern for voters. Factors include rising gas prices, tariffs, and the war in Iran.
A wave of redistricting has altered the map. Republicans shifted boundary lines in districts held by Reps. Marcy Kaptur of Ohio, Don Davis of North Carolina, Shomari Figures of Alabama, and Darren Soto of Florida. Only Figures and Soto remain in districts rated as favoring Republicans. Democrats made similar adjustments in California to aid Reps. James Gallagher, David Valadao, Ken Calvert, Darrell Issa, and independent Kevin Kiley.
Michigan's 7th District and North Carolina's 1st District top the spending list, each with over $12 million planned. Other high-spend areas include Florida's 14th, 22nd, and 25th Districts, New York's 17th District, and Iowa's 2nd and 3rd Districts. The 70 competitive districts voted for Donald Trump by an average of nine points in 2024. Sixty of these districts are listed as priorities by both party campaign arms.
Source: WUSF Public Media
