Middle Tennessee vs. Kennesaw State: Model Predicts 57 Total Points in Wednesday Night Game
SportsLine simulations project a combined score of 57 for the Conference USA matchup, favoring the over despite a lopsided odds board.
By Hana Gray ·
A statistical model projects 57 combined points in Wednesday night’s Conference USA matchup between the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders and the Kennesaw State Owls. The SportsLine Projection Model ran 10,000 simulations of the game to arrive at that figure, which exceeds the current betting total of 50.5 points. The model identifies the over as the value play in 63% of its iterations.
Middle Tennessee enters the contest as a 2.5-point favorite. The Blue Raiders are 4-3 overall and 2-1 in conference play. They have won their last two games, including a 26-23 victory over Florida International in Week 8. The team is 3-0 at Johnny (Red) Floyd Stadium in Murfreesboro, Tennessee.
Kennesaw State is 1-6 overall and 0-3 in the conference. The Owls have lost six consecutive games, including a 34-6 defeat to Liberty in the previous week. They are 0-3 on the road this season. The all-time series between the two schools is tied 1-1, with Kennesaw State winning last season’s meeting 24-16.
Quarterback performance is a central variable in the projection. The model estimates that Kennesaw State quarterback Rickie Collins will throw for nearly 250 yards and two touchdowns. Middle Tennessee quarterback Roman Gagliano is projected to complete passes for around 230 yards and one score. In the simulations, both teams approached the 30-point mark individually.
The model notes that Middle Tennessee has cleared the betting total in its last three games. It also indicates that one side of the point spread hits in more than 50% of simulations, though the specific side is reserved for subscribers. SportsLine reports a 68-59 record on top-rated college football picks entering Week 9. That performance would have generated a return of nearly $400 for players wagering $100.
Kickoff is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network. The game serves as a key test for both teams in the Conference USA standings. Kennesaw State is tied for ninth place, while Middle Tennessee is tied for third.
Source: CBS Sports
