7,000 dead in Iran as analysts predict third war round after midterms

Analysts predict a third round of war between the U.S. and Iran will begin after the Nov. 3 midterm elections.

Danny Citrinowicz, an Israeli analyst with the Institute for National Security Studies, told CBC News that a renewed conflict is nearly inevitable. He served as an intelligence official in Israel's military for more than two decades. He now warns that U.S. President Donald Trump faces only bad options in the Persian Gulf. This view follows his earlier caution that attacks on the Iranian regime would widen regional conflict rather than change the government.

The United States and Israel have fought Iran twice in the past 18 months under the Trump and Netanyahu administrations. The first war started in June 2025 with strikes on nuclear sites. It lasted 12 days and ended in a fragile truce. Fighting returned in February after a large U.S. military buildup. Israeli forces struck senior leaders, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, to open the second phase.

Citrinowicz expects the next conflict to target Gulf energy facilities, civilian infrastructure, and undersea internet lines in the Strait of Hormuz. He also sees a chance that Iran's land army could launch limited attacks on Kuwait and Bahrain. These nations host U.S. bases. The goal would be to inflict maximum damage on the American economy. Since the summer truce broke, the U.S. has blockaded Iranian ports. Iran has targeted commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, raising global energy costs.

On Thursday, Trump accused Iran of trying to inflate oil prices before the midterms. He claimed on Truth Social that Iran was making up fake hits and mines. A report from the Critical Threats Project and the Institute for the Study of War agreed that vessel attacks are meant to pressure Washington. Iran demands sanctions relief, reparations for strike damage, the release of frozen assets, and the right to keep enriched uranium. Mediators from Pakistan and Qatar have spent weeks trying to restart talks without success.

Suzanne Maloney of the Brookings Institution said the war has pushed Iran's leadership to double down on revolutionary ideology. She warned that retaliation would come from proxies like the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon. These groups could target soft economic sites such as airports. Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace argued that Trump lacks a clear goal. He stated that no military knockout punch will force Iran to capitulate. Sadjadpour noted that diplomacy is not dead but has been narrowed by maximalist U.S. aims. Iran will compromise only under existential economic pressure and a clear diplomatic exit. He said, "If you're asking them to change their identity, that's not going to succeed."

The human toll is heavy. Western NGOs report more than 7,000 deaths in Iran. Lebanese media report over 4,000 deaths in Lebanon. Twenty-one U.S. service members have been killed, mostly in Iranian strikes on Gulf bases. More than 70 Israelis have also died. Deaths were recorded in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Yemen. The Pentagon is drafting a new battle plan, though it is unknown if Trump will approve it.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has spoken of finishing the job and bringing down the Iranian regime. He faces voters in the coming days in a close race. Citrinowicz said a widening crisis could help Netanyahu stay in power by enabling an emergency unity government. The danger is that political calculation combines with an inflated Iranian development, producing an unnecessary attack.