77.7 percent turnout marks record as Israeli election leaves leadership in limbo

The Central Elections Committee reported that 77.7 percent of eligible voters participated in Tuesday's parliamentary election, the highest turnout recorded in Israel since 1999. This participation rate represents a 7.1 percentage point increase from the 2022 vote, during which Benjamin Netanyahu returned to office after serving as prime minister in intermittent terms since 1996.

Late-night exit polls from Channel 12 projected that the bloc led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would secure 52 seats in the 120-seat Knesset. The opposition bloc, led by former military chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot and his Yashar party, was projected to win 49 seats. Channel 13 reported an even tighter race, placing both blocs at 51 seats each. Likud, Netanyahu's party, is expected to emerge as the single largest group with approximately 27 seats, compared to 21 for Yashar. Arab parties are projected to win 19 seats collectively, a gain over their 2022 total.

Because no single party has ever achieved the 61-seat majority required to govern, the outcome remains uncertain pending final counts. Eisenkot addressed supporters at his party headquarters, stating, "this will be a new start. A real new start on a new path. The old era is over, and Israel is starting a new era." Conversely, Netanyahu told supporters that Likud's dominance necessitates the formation of a national right-wing government. He asserted, "What we've seen is that the Likud party is the largest party, nobody can compete with us." Netanyahu also criticized television channels for projecting strong opposition results, which he said discouraged his base from voting.

Other political figures reacted to the preliminary numbers. Far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich vowed to continue expanding Jewish settlements in the occupied West Bank, while his party was projected to win seven seats. National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir praised his Otzma Yehudit party's performance, noting, "This party was not even existing on the political landscape." Yair Golan, leader of the Democrats party, declared on social media that voters had fired the Netanyahu government. Mansour Abbas, leader of Ra’am, expressed hope that final results would allow the opposition and his party to reach the 61-seat threshold needed to form a government. His party was projected to win around seven seats.

Tensions between Arab-led lists and Netanyahu intensified in the final hours of voting. Yousef Jabareen, leader of the Joint List, accused Netanyahu of inciting hatred against Palestinian citizens to boost his prospects. Abbas described Netanyahu's comments as a scare tactic to mobilize right-wing voters. Netanyahu responded with a series of posts on X, labeling Arab voters as Muslim Brotherhood supporters and urging right-wing Israelis to treat the election as a matter of life and death.

The military reported that turnout among soldiers exceeded 68 percent by 5 p.m. local time. More than 60,000 Israelis returned from abroad to vote. Polling stations closed at 10 p.m. local time, though the committee allowed anyone waiting in line to cast a ballot. Preliminary official results are scheduled for Wednesday, with the final tally expected by Friday. Official results will be formally published on November 4.

Following the final count, President Isaac Herzog will consult with party leaders to determine which candidate has the best chance of forming a coalition. That candidate will have 42 days to assemble a government. If no coalition emerges, Netanyahu will remain as caretaker prime minister, or new elections may be called. Parties may also negotiate power-sharing arrangements or minority governments if a clear majority is not reached.