Nine-Hour Closures: How Drone Strikes Are Disrupting Moscow Air Travel

Moscow’s four main airports have suspended operations almost every day in October, with some closures lasting up to nine hours. The repeated interruptions stem from Ukrainian drone strikes that force Russian authorities to halt air traffic under a strict safety protocol.

The disruption follows a strategy announced by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in early September. He stated that Ukraine intended to cut off airspace around Moscow and warned that Russian airspace would become completely unsafe. The next day, Kyiv sent a matching warning to the International Civil Aviation Organization. This approach mirrors the closure of Ukrainian airspace, which has remained shut since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022.

The operational halt is triggered by the 'carpet' protocol, a procedure managed by Rosaviatsiya, Russia’s aviation authority. The protocol closes airspace if an aircraft violates borders, weapons are used, or unidentified objects appear in the sky. Oleksandr Laneckij, chief executive of Friendly Avia Support, noted that every drone poses a military threat. He compared the situation to the Houthis in Yemen, who disrupted Saudi airspace, but argued that Ukraine’s military capabilities far exceed those of the Yemeni group.

Military analyst Jan Matvejev stated that Ukraine can easily disrupt traffic because it can produce hundreds of combat-ready long-range drones daily. He argued that Russian air defenses are not fully effective against these threats. Matvejev noted that if Russia could shoot them down effectively, it would have done so by now, implying a lack of sufficient air-defense troops.

Experts warn of risks to civilian flights, particularly regarding the use of missiles to counter drones. Laneckij warned that Russia might lower the threshold for declaring the carpet protocol, increasing the danger of incidents like the 2024 Christmas day crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines flight. Investigators found that aircraft was hit by a Russian air-defense missile fired to counter drones, killing 38 people. Matvejev said little has changed in the protocol since then, noting that mass-produced missiles could defect and strike nearby airliners.

Drone debris has also affected other Russian locations, including Sochi airport earlier this month and Pskov airport in the summer of 2023. In September, Zelenskyy confirmed that Kyiv’s airport and Boryspil were hit by Russian strikes. The persistence of these attacks suggests that the current level of disruption is only a preliminary phase of a longer campaign.

Foreign airlines face a decision based on three factors: the military threat, demand, and insurance costs. Laneckij explained that if insurers rate the risk as very high, they will sharply raise premiums, which will send ticket prices soaring. Competition in Russia’s aviation market has already shrunk as many airlines have gone out of business, pushing up demand for seats on the remaining foreign carriers.