Musk's 8 Flight Plan Shaves Months Off Lunar Fueling

Elon Musk stated on Thursday that eight Starship flights will be sufficient to fuel a lunar lander, directly contradicting a NASA safety panel estimate of 22 launches. The CEO of SpaceX posted the comment in response to remarks made during a public meeting of the Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel.

Charlie Precourt, a former NASA astronaut serving on the panel, identified the fueling process as a primary risk for Artemis IV. The mission is scheduled to send a crew to the Moon in 2028. Precourt told the panel that the team must monitor the numerous required fuelings for the lander. He cited a previous estimate of approximately 22 flights to complete the operation.

The discrepancy arises from the physical limits of the Starship vehicle. The rocket consumes nearly all its propellant reaching Earth orbit, requiring it to refuel in space before traveling to the Moon. SpaceX’s plan involves launching a Starship configured as a storage depot. Multiple tanker Starships then launch separately, dock with the depot, and transfer their remaining propellant. Once the depot is full, the lunar lander launches, docks, and departs for the Moon.

Each tanker flight represents a complete rocket launch, adding time, cost, and potential failure points before the crew leaves Earth. Eric Berger, who covered the panel's remarks, estimated that filling a depot at the panel's rate of 22 flights would take about three months. This calculation assumes SpaceX achieves a launch rate of two Starships per week by the end of 2027.

The variation in counts depends on propellant efficiency and losses. Starship stores fuel and oxygen at extremely low temperatures, causing some boil-off while in orbit and during transfers. NASA’s estimate appears to rely on current Starship lift capabilities, while Musk’s lower range assumes a more capable version of the vehicle. Musk has previously disputed higher launch counts, calling a 2021 government estimate of 16 launches "extremely unlikely" and predicting a maximum of eight tankers.

The resolution of the dispute hinges on hardware SpaceX has not yet fully tested. The company plans to conduct refueling operations with its upgraded V3 Starship. Precourt noted that Artemis IV involves a large number of firsts. He also acknowledged NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman for working to remove obstacles for both SpaceX and Blue Origin. Blue Origin’s Blue Moon lander does not rely on orbital refueling for its initial mission.